In the millions of predictions of the World Cup that I studied in order to be prepared to walk you through it all here, it is astonishing how wildly off the rails all those predictions have turned out to be already, and we have barely begun!
It is not just that one of the top favorites of the tournament, Spain, merely tied Cabo Verde who is ranked 64th, but also, in a less heralded upset, New Zealand eeked out a tie with Iran, which to the lay person might not seem impressive, but New Zealand were ranked 85th in the world! They had the lowest ranking in the tournament while Iran was pretty well regarded at 20. Indeed, the big story of the World Cup so far has been the draws. As I write more than half the already numerous games have ended in a tie score. Considering the great dig against this new cup format was that it weakens the pool of competitve teams and creates too many mismatches, that's pretty hilarious.
So what does it all mean?
Nothing much.
Yet.
As I have said before, this low elimination group stage is not really for key events, it's for all of us to kind of get the feel for the whole thing and to size everyone up. It's for creating little miracles for the "we're just elated to be here" teams and for the solid teams to get it together and hopefully work out their kinks, not mess up their seeds, and to prepare themselves.
Sure, so far these games have told us the USA will go farther than anyone thought, that Germany is now a key favorite, and that Spain, while talented, is toothless. Turkiye and Ecuador were overrated! New Zealand is better than anyone thought. The Netherlands have the worst coach. Goalies are the difference between miracle ties and slaughters. Morocco's success wasn't accidental, Brazil despite the fancy coach aren't there yet, and Belgium's reluctance to play Axel Witsel cost them the opening win. Oh, and Sweden's front line is absolutely devastating.
But these are all just appetizers. Not even appetizers, they are amuse bouches! These look like truth right now but they are all written in sand. The tide will come in and wash them away. Or the tide will etch them deeper. Or maybe it wash them away, come back, and put them there again, though perhaps slightly altered.
My prediction?
Sorry, not my thing as I find them oddly wrong even when they are right. But I do have advice, even if it be mostly to myself:
Sure, go ahead and enjoy an upset, however it comes, even in a draw.
And delight in Cinderella stories.
But keep an eye out for good soccer, and enjoy that even more.
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